Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with large-scale educational trend data: a case study using NAEP
Abstract Of critical importance to education policy is monitoring trends in education outcomes over time.In the United States, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has provided long-term trend data since 1970; at the state/jurisdiction level, NAEP has provided long-term trend data since 1996.In addition to the national NAEP, all 5